Meta-analysis · small-study effects

Funnel plot example: passive smoking and lung cancer

Contour-enhanced funnel plot of 37 studies of passive smoking and lung cancer, with Egger’s test, Begg’s test and trim and fill. Real data from Hackshaw et al. (BMJ 1997).

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0.20.51250.00.20.40.60.8Standard errorOdds ratio (log scale)StudiesImputed studies (trim and fill)Summary estimateAdjusted estimate (trim and fill)P value:≥ 0.100.05–0.100.01–0.05< 0.01Egger’s test: bias = 0.90, t = 2.38, df = 35, P = 0.023Begg’s test: Kendall’s tau = 0.144, P = 0.216Trim and fill: 7 studies imputed on the left; adjusted OR 1.19 [1.08, 1.31]
Log odds ratios of 37 studies against their standard errors; shading shows where a study would be significant.

About this example

Hackshaw, Law and Wald (BMJ 1997) pooled 37 epidemiological studies of lung cancer in lifelong non-smokers living with a smoker. The funnel plot is a textbook example of asymmetry in observational data: small studies with large odds ratios sit at the bottom right, while the matching small studies with odds ratios below 1 are missing.

Egger’s regression test is significant (P ≈ 0.02) and trim and fill imputes seven studies on the left, which lowers the random-effects odds ratio from about 1.24 to 1.19. The contours show that most of the missing studies would have fallen in the non-significant white region, which is what publication bias would predict. Asymmetry can have other causes, though, such as differences in study quality between small and large studies.

The data

StudyORLowerUpper
Garfinkel 19811.180.91.54
Hirayama 19841.451.022.08
Butler 19882.020.488.56
Cardenas 19971.20.81.6
Chan 19820.750.431.3
Correa 19832.070.815.25
Trichopolous 19832.131.193.83
Buffler 19840.80.341.9
Kabat 19840.790.252.45
Lam 19852.011.093.72
Garfinkel 19851.230.811.87
Wu 19851.20.53.3
Akiba 19861.520.872.63
Lee 19861.030.412.55
Koo 19871.550.92.67

…and 22 more rows. Open the example to see all of them.

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